A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
